Gershon Baskin

The view from the Left

11.04.2019

Gershon Baskin. Photo: Otmar Steinbicker

Netanyahu did it again. Despite three indictments for corruption hanging over his future, despite the gaps between rich and poor and increasing costs of living, despite the collapsing health system, despite spending hours in traffic jams every week, despite the periodic barrage of rockets from Gaza, despite the perception of giving into Hamas and paying protection money, Benjamin Netanyahu will remain Israel’s prime minister.

Israel is a very divided society. Yet it is difficult to determine that the division is over ideology and visions for the future of Israel. Israel divided its votes equally between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. But the Arab citizens of Israel failed to bring out the vote. One of the two Arab parties did not make it over the threshold – and they will surely pay the price for it. Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut Party, surprisingly, failed to cross the threshold, and that is good news.

The best news is that the Bennett-Shaked union of the New Right will also be out of our lives for the coming months, perhaps years. However, the agenda that Shaked set in place with the aim of eliminating the ability of the Supreme Court to deal with constitutional issues will likely advance.

Along with the bad news is the shrinking of the Labor Party and its more ideological sister, Meretz. Both Labor and Meretz need to rethink their futures.

Israel continues to move to the Right. Gantz and his party of generals will bring new life to the opposition, where they will primarily focus on bringing down Netanyahu after his hearing regarding his criminal indictments. The assumption this morning is that the cases against Netanyahu are so solid that within a year, he will be forced to resign, and then Israel will most likely head to the polls once again, this time without the unbeatable Netanyahu heading the Likud.

For now, it seems that what there was is what there will be. Avigdor Liberman may be heading back to the Defense Ministry. Kahlon will be heading back to the Finance Ministry. The right-wing religious union will probably demand the education portfolio and maybe the Justice Ministry.

None of the real issues on Israel’s agenda were even discussed during the election campaign. The critical issues – of determining Israel’s borders, the future of the occupied territories, the Palestinian issue, and the issue of peace – have never been further from the public political debate than in this election campaign. Issues concerning Israel’s economic policies and direction, what was called just a few years ago “social justice,” were also not on the agenda. The issues of the environment and climate change, which is on the agenda of young people all around the world, was also not on the agenda in these elections.

The Israeli elections were about one main issue: Benjamin Netanyahu, and here is where the public seems most divided. Those of us who see Netanyahu as corrupt, divisive against Arabs and leftists, an annexationist without any hope in the world of ending Israel’s occupation over the Palestinian people, are extremely sad this morning.

The other side is celebrating its victory, and will now hold Netanyahu to his words: that the criminal files against him are nothing and will quickly disappear; that he will annex at least the Jewish settlement blocs accounting for 20-40% of the West Bank; that he will eliminate the Hamas threat in Gaza; and that he will continue to march into the arms of waiting Arab leaders in the region, without giving in to the Palestinians.

What I see from the Left side of the political map is the continuing weakening of the rule of law; increasing threats to Israel’s Supreme Court; continued provocation with the Palestinian Authority that will lead to a sharp increase in violence; little chance of changing the situation vis-à-vis Gaza; and no changes regarding the regional threats. It seems hard to believe that after his hearing on the cases of corruption, the indictments will not be issued and then Netanyahu will have his “day in court.” Except that his day in court will be many, many days and months, and it is hard to understand how he will be able to run the country that needs most of his time to be prime minister. For this reason, it is likely his coalition partners will advance a law or a mechanism to enable him to delay his legal battles until he is no longer prime minister, and that could be years from now.

The most important unknown is President Donald Trump’s “deal of the century,” which is supposed to be presented, finally, in the near future. If it is, as I expect, a pre-cooked deal between Trump and Netanyahu, it will be a total non-starter for the Palestinians, who will immediately reject it. Then Netanyahu will be able to freely embrace it, even if there are elements in the plan that he rejects. Netanyahu will blame the Palestinians, once again for rejecting peace, and say that Israel has no partner.

Netanyahu will be able to state that Israel accepts the plan as a basis for negotiations and we are, once again, waiting for there to be a Palestinian partner. Following this, he is likely to move forward with his plans for annexing large chunks of the West Bank. The action that will put a final blow to the option of two states, except, as I wrote last week, he will begin the process of convincing the world that the two-states solution already exists, with Gaza being a Palestinian state.

He will also bring new life into what was called the “Jordanian option,” telling West Bank Palestinians that they already have Jordanian citizenship, and if they want they are welcome to remain in areas A and B of the West Bank under the corrupt Palestinian Authority, or to leave to Jordan or elsewhere.

President Abbas’s days are numbered for sure – as a result of age, too many years in office, or his inability to offer any hope to his people. The Palestinian people will also have their day at the polls in the not too distant future. Without any positive political horizon for them, it is likely that they too will end up with a government which is not interested in peace with Israel.

For reasons that completely escape me, most Israelis who I meet seem content and even happy with their situation. This is an aspect of Israeli society that we will have to revisit. For me personally, I am very worried about our future.

Gershon Baskin ist Autor des Aachener Friedensmagazins www.aixpaix.de. Seine Beiträge finden Sie hier


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Beiträge von Gershon Baskin
2019

The view from the Left

Gaza – now and forever

Israel 2019 and the absence of peace

2018

Cross border cooperation and partnerships, not divorce

Lost love of the homeland

Inspire us!

Why I support a Palestinian list in Jerusalem

All of his achievements

A question of honor

Heroes and terrorists

Barak is coming?

Israel’s strategic dead end in Gaza

Undoing the two-state solution

Leveraging the Gaza crisis

Memories and the future

Encountering drama and lies

From Jerusalem will come hope!

Preventing the next war

No more slogans, we need action!

The missing Jerusalem

It still is the occupation

Beyond deterrence

Alienation

It is up to us

The past is beyond us

Existential Realities

2017

Our Jerusalem

November 29 - a national holiday

Two nation-states, two national minorities

Being Jewish

Public diplomacy

Gabbay on the road to defeat

Gaza’s geo-strategic remaking

The Americans are Coming, Again!

The next Palestinian generation

The house of God

IF I WERE THE PALESTINIAN LEADER...

The Zionist Left – Israel’s only hope

To be a free people

The Day after Independence Day

Prisoners, strikes and rights

The inevitability of peace

From Washington to Jerusalem

Eight pieces of advice to Trump envoy Jason Greenblatt

Becoming a real, effective democracy requires a real, effective opposition

Only two states – nothing else

The fatal Israeli-Gaza mistake (2)

The fatal Israeli-Gaza mistakes

The wisdom to limit our rights

Where to, Israel?

Get out of our lives already!

The authority of the Authority

2016

The state of denial

Settlements, annexation and the death of Zionism

It’s not just the economy

Encountering peace?

Building a shared society

Excuse me for asking

Secret back channels

Anti-anti-normalization

The Left is right

A moment of opportunity

The worst negotiations, the best negotiations

Palestinian suffering makes no sense for Israel

Creating a compelling vision for peace

It is also in our hands

There is no partner

2015

The partnership challenge

A new intifada?

After Abbas

A bad agreement is better than no agreement

Israel’s strategic choices regarding Gaza

2014

Jerusalem of peace, Jerusalem of war

The Gaza challenge

Is Hamas prepared to end this war with a long-term ceasefire?

Some thoughts this morning

Regional forum for security and stability – Gaza first

After a long phone conversation with a Hamas leader in Gaza

Don’t destroy Gaza, build it!

Framework document for the establishment of permanent peace (part 3 of 3)

Framework document for the establishment of permanent peace (part 2 of 3)

Framework document for the establishment of permanent peace

2013

My Conversation With Hamas

Keine Fortsetzung des Unilateralismus!

Diesen Weg müssen wir einschlagen!

2012

Eine Ein-Staat-Realität ist nicht durchführbar

Mord an der Chance für Ruhe

Das Ende des Raketenbeschusses aus Gaza

Es gibt einen Ausweg

Atomwaffen raus aus dem Arsenal

Was Abbas Israel sagen sollte

Ist mein zionistischer Traum gestorben?